We simulate hundreds of market scenarios to find an outcome with at least a 70% probability of reaching your goal.
Beyond the market scenarios, there are a lot of other variables we take into account. We look at:
- How much you’re investing each month, and assume that you’ll start investing more over time
- Real-world realities such as taxes, fund fees, and inflation
- Shifting the mix of your investments as you get closer to the end of your timeline to reduce risk (called glide paths)
- Accounting for compounding investment returns
- Using a market model which recognizes that while asset prices change day-to-day, they’ll eventually return to their long-run averages
You might see other providers forecast better performance, but that’s because they’re only projecting a 50% of market outcomes. Their number might seem more attractive, but you can be more confident with Ellevest.