“On Track” means you have a 70% likelihood of meeting your target dollar amount in the desired time frame, or better. We calculate this likelihood by simulating how your portfolio and savings would perform under many different economic scenarios (for example: poor market conditions, high inflation, low interest rates, and more). In 70% of these scenarios, you’re able to meet or exceed your goal. “Off Track” means that you have a less than 70% likelihood of achieving your target dollar amount. It doesn’t mean you get zero, it just means you may end up with less.
Some other digital advisors may show higher forecasts, but those forecasts only have a 50% estimated chance of achievement, so “slightly better than average”.